Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200 ER
1. How safe is flying?
2. Which is the safest Airline?
3. Which is the safest airplane?
4. Where is the best and safest seat in an airplane?
5. Are older planes less reliable?
6. How stringent are maintenance of aircraft?
7. When should you be more alert in-flight?
8. What are the likely causes of air crashes?
9. What are the more common in-flight emergencies?
10. Who investigates air accidents?
11. The future of Air Safety
If you are looking for perfect safety, you will do well to sit on a fence and watch the birds.
- Wilber Wright
How safe is flying?
One of the questions in the mind of a fearful flyer is - how safe is flying? Well, the best way to answer this question is to compare it to driving.
Many statistics are quoted depending on the data and date used for the comparison. In 1995, using reports from the US Bureau of Travel Statistics, air travel was 157 times safer than driving. But since people generally drive much more than they fly, another finding based on distance traveled rather than on the number of trips done came up with another finding: Flying is 8 times safer than driving and twice as safe as taking a train.
According to Arnold Barnet, the chances of you being involved in a fatal air crash can vary between whether you are on an international or domestic flight and whether the airlines you are boarding is from a developed country or otherwise.
Air travel today is generally very safe. Some may then ask, “Ah, why do I hear a lot about air crashes?” Sure, every air crash is promptly reported worldwide. But do you know that more people die in car crashes in 6 months than have died in all plane accidents in the last 100 years?
They do not believe that crossing a road, climbing the ladder or having a soak in their bathtubs are more risky than taking a journey by air in a major airline. Yes, flying was not very safe in the beginning when air travel was at its infancy. Today, modern technology has made the airplane very reliable.
Flying in the early years
When I first started flying, airplane instruments were very basic. How safe was flying was dependant on the skill of the pilots. As the saying goes, to err is human. But one cannot afford to make a serious error where flying is concerned because lives are affected. Hence, human error is the last link to making flying safer. Fortunately, aircraft manufacturers have built in many safety and warning systems to compensate for the possible human errors.
Every individual is born differently. Some are born with the innate talent of handling the aircraft very well whilst others are not so. Hence, to be qualified as a pilot, one must demonstrate at least an ability to fly safely. Unlike driving a car, a pilot cannot afford to make a critical mistake for to do so would likely be his last error. (The 2005 Helios Boeing 737 in Cyprus and the recent 2007 Sao Paulo TAM Airbus A320 crashes are just two good examples)
In the past, aircraft were designed with less safety backups and air accidents were often fatal. One example involved a wide-body airliner in the US, which had a minor problem with landing gears indication inside the cockpit. The crew was trying to determine whether the landing gears were physically down since one of the lights was faulty. It was at night and all of them were deeply engrossed with trying to fix a light bulb without monitoring that the autopilot was not flying the aircraft. It was in fact descending. As the aircraft was quite low, the slow descent of the airplane was not apparent and it eventually crashed, killing all on board.
Today, modern aircraft have been installed with many safety features and the above accident should not have happened if some of the safety warning systems were in that aircraft.
Crashing into Terrain
The Boeing 777 is one of the latest and most modern airplanes in the world today. It has some of the safest features, which would virtually eliminate any uncontrolled flight into terrain. This system involved is known as the EGPWS (Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System).
The EGPWS is capable of providing at least 9 warnings to the pilot so that remedial actions can be taken to prevent any event from developing into something disastrous. This can save a lot of lives, especially to a pilot who may have the misfortune of not being particularly alert on that day. Pilots are human and they can make mistakes. The warnings come in the form of aural as well as visual indications. Therefore, when a mistake will eventually develop into something dangerous, the warnings against such an event can certainly save the day.
Modern aircraft today fly at a very high speed. At the cruising level, the aircraft flies at about 9 miles a minute (550 mph) or around 800 feet a second. During the landing phase, the speed is around 170 mph or about 250 feet a second. Thus, even a few seconds delay in recognizing a potential mistake can be very costly. With the EGPWS installed, when a fatigued pilot (he should not be flying!) is slow in recognizing that his aircraft is encountering a high descent rate into terrain, he would be reminded with an aural alert, "Sink Rate!" from the computer informing him that he should do something to correct the excessive sink rate.
What happened if the tired pilot did nothing? At about 50 seconds before crashing, another warning "Caution, Terrain!” would come through the overhead speaker warning the pilot to take action as terrain is ahead. If no action is taken by about 25 seconds to impact, another final warning "Terrain, Terrain, Pull Up!" would come on. The tired pilot must wake up now and pull up the flight controls to avoid crashing into the terrain!
Landing Gears, Flaps and Over-Banking reminders
Besides the other warnings, the EGPWS also alert the pilot if he forgets to select the landing gears or flaps when he is about to make a landing.
Many aircraft have crashed because the pilot was disorientated in bad weather. Disorientation arises when a pilot does not know if he was flying level or inverted. This is mainly due to loss of visual reference to the horizon, especially if the pilot accidentally flew into clouds when he was not trained to fly under such conditions. John Kennedy Junior was probably disorientated before he crashed into the sea. The 2004 crash of the Boeing 737 from Flash Airlines, an Egyptian Air Charter company may be another example.
What is the most likely cause of disorientation? In most cases, the pilot was over banking (lifting one of the wings in order to turn) his aircraft without realizing it. He was not aware he was turning because of no visual reference to the horizon or he was too engrossed with other tasks. An over-banked aircraft will develop into a spiral dive. If not handled correctly, the aircraft would crash. The EGPWS has an alert to warn the pilot when the aircraft is over-banking excessively.
Avoiding Wind Shear
Many years back, a Boeing 727 crashed before landing in an US airport due to wind shear. Could that accident have been averted? Yes, if only the EGPWS was developed then. On the Boeing 777 today, if wind shear were encountered on the approach to land, there would be visual and aural warnings. Firstly, the pilot would be notified to look at his radar display when wind shear is predicted 3 miles ahead. When the airplane is 1.5 miles to the predicted wind shear and if the pilot took no action to avoid it, he would be alerted by an aural warning to abort the landing and go around.
These are some of the major warnings that are available in the EGPWS and they do certainly save lives. Today, as more aircraft are equipped with this system, flying will become safer. It helps the pilots to detect errors that were not available to aircraft in the past.
Which is the safest Airline?
Officially, it is not possible to get a ranking of airline safety because of the difficulty of getting the accident rates data reliably from the Airlines or even the responsible aviation authorities. For instance, as late as 1996, the FAA was not providing the statistics to the consumers. Their rationale: to prevent public disclosure of sensitive information to the public. However, the former Inspector General of the US Department of Transportation, Mary Schiavo rejected this argument, saying that the flying consumer, that is, the public who has the greatest interest in knowing the safety rates of airlines should not be deprived of such information and did release some data later on when she resigned from the Office.
I have however compiled some information that I have gathered from various sources and came up with some unofficial rankings below. Accidents can be a result of many factors. It is never easy to make good comparisons but I will endeavor to do so by using accident rates only. Accident rates are defined as the number of safety problems that arose for every 100,000 take-offs.
As a general rule, airlines from the First World have a better safety record than those from the less developed World. The safety of an airline is dependent on many factors, namely the management of the Company, the age of the aircraft, how well are the training standards being maintained, whether standard operating procedures are properly adhered to, proper maintenance of aircraft and sometimes, there are other outside factors which are beyond the airlines’ control. Thus, accident that arose can be attributed to a combination of many factors.
Listed below are the 10 safest Airlines for each region of the world. It is meant to serve as an unofficial ranking and as well as a general guidance to the air traveler. The Rankings listed below are compiled from AirDisaster.com, Boeing's Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplanes Accidents: 1959-1999, AirSafe.com, planecrashinfo.com and some from Mary Schiavo's book, Flying Safe, Flying Blind. There are many criteria used by other organizations to provide safety statistics for airlines, and aviation authorities are reluctant to come to a consensus and provide an official one. Thus, where the accident rates varies, I have done some juggling by averaging the results in order to come out with these unofficial rankings. Therefore, I cannot guarantee accuracy, endorse any airlines or aircraft based on them. These rankings are based on average accident rates only and are subjected to corrections from time to time.
Safest Airlines
United States and Canada
|
Rankings
|
Airlines
|
Last Accident
|
Accident Rate
|
|
1
|
South West
|
-
|
0.00
|
|
2
|
America West
|
-
|
0.00
|
|
3
|
Delta Airlines
|
1996
|
0.23
|
|
4
|
North West
|
1993
|
0.35
|
|
5
|
Continental Airlines
|
1991
|
0.40
|
|
6
|
United Airlines
|
2001
|
0.43
|
|
7
|
USAir
|
1994
|
0.45
|
|
8
|
Air Canada
|
1983
|
0.48
|
|
9
|
Aloha Airlines
|
1989
|
0.49
|
|
10
|
American Airlines
|
2001
|
0.53
|
Sources: AirDisaster.com, AirSafe.com, Boeing, FAA Statistics. planecrashinfo.com 2004
United States and Canada are classified under the First World category. From the table above, the accident rates for all the 10 Airlines are below 1.0, indicating that they have a very safe record.
Caribbean & Latin/South America Regions
|
Rankings
|
Airlines
|
Last Accident |
Accident Rate
|
|
1
|
Mexicana Airlines
|
1986
|
0.53
|
|
2
|
Aerolineas Argentinas
|
1970
|
1.20
|
|
3
|
Varig
|
1989
|
1.22
|
|
4
|
Aeromexico
|
2000
|
1.85
|
|
5
|
Transbrazil
|
N/A
|
2.35
|
|
6
|
Avianca
|
1990
|
3.15
|
|
7
|
VASP
|
1986
|
3.24
|
|
8
|
LAN Chile
|
1991
|
4.00
|
|
9
|
Aero Peru
|
N/A
|
16.7
|
|
10
|
Cubana
|
1999
|
24.0
|
Sources: AirDisaster.com, Boeing, FAA Statistics, planecrashinfo.com 2004
In the Caribbean & Latin/South American Regions, the disparity between the safest and the least
safe is quite marked. The first five rankings seem reasonable even though they are classified under
the Developing World category.
Europe
|
Rankings
|
Airlines
|
Last Accident
|
Accident Rate
|
|
1
|
British Airways
|
1985
|
0.270
|
|
2
|
Luthansa
|
1993
|
0.300
|
|
3
|
SAS
|
2001
|
0.595
|
|
4
|
British Midlands
|
1989
|
0.680
|
|
5
|
Braathens SAFE
|
1972
|
0.695
|
|
6
|
Alitalia
|
1990
|
0.750
|
|
7
|
Iberia
|
1985
|
0.845
|
|
8
|
Air France
|
2000
|
0.870
|
|
9
|
KLM
|
1994
|
1.030
|
|
10
|
TAP Portugal
|
1977
|
l.060
|
Sources: AirDisaster.com, AirSafe.com, Boeing, FAA, Statistics, planecrashinfo.com 2004
European Airlines all come under the First World category and their records indicate their better
safety standards.
Africa and Middle East
|
Rankings
|
Airlines
|
Last Accident
|
Accident Rate
|
|
1
|
Emirates
|
None |
0.21 |
|
2
|
El Al
|
1955 |
0.11
|
|
3
|
Royal Jordanian
|
1994
|
0.09
|
|
4
|
Kuwait
|
1988
|
0.08
|
|
5
|
Air Zimbahwe
|
1979
|
0.06
|
|
6
|
Oman Aviation
|
None
|
0.05
|
|
7
|
Saudi Airlines
|
1996
|
0.38
|
|
8
|
South African
|
1987
|
0.65
|
|
9
|
Royal Air Moroc
|
1994
|
0.81
|
|
10
|
Egypt Air
|
2002
|
0.94 |
Sources: AirDisaster.com, Boeing, FAA Statistics. planecrashinfo.com 2004
In Africa and the Middle East, Emirates was not listed previously due to insufficient safety data but has today finally made it to the top in the region.
Australia and Asia
|
Rankings
|
Airlines
|
Last accident |
Accident Rate
|
|
1
|
QANTAS
|
1951
|
0.00
|
|
2
|
All Nippon Airways
|
1971
|
0.22
|
|
3
|
Air New Zealand
|
1979
|
0.74
|
|
4
|
Cathay Pacific Airways
|
1972
|
0.97
|
|
5
|
Malaysia Airlines
|
1995
|
1.11
|
|
6
|
Thai International
|
1998
|
1.90
|
|
7
|
Singapore/Silk Air
|
2000
|
2.00
|
|
8
|
Japan Airlines
|
1985
|
2.05
|
|
9
|
Garuda Airlines
|
2002
|
4.08
|
|
10
|
Phillippines Airlines
|
1994
|
4.68
|
Sources: AirDisaster.com, AirSafe.com, Boeing, FAA, Statistics, planecrashinfo.com 2004
Qantas is one of the safest airlines in the world with a record of zero fatalities in its many years of operation. However, one of its Boeing 747 was involved in an accident during a landing in Bangkok. Although there were no fatalities, the damage to the airplane was quite extensive. Instead of writing off the hull that would be cheaper, it appears that Qantas decided to repair the airplane to maintain a zero hull loss record!
According to the table, All Nippon Airways has an even better record than most of the American or European best Airlines.
Which is the safest airplane?
Newer airplanes are naturally safer. The Boeing 777 has been in operation for more than 7 years and has the least accident rate. It is a very versatile airplane and has many safety features. It is the first aircraft to be completely designed by computers and has the latest avionics and navigational systems. However, all other aircraft are just as safe. The certification of every aircraft models must comply with the same set of standards otherwise they would not be released by the authorities for the carriage of passengers.
Below is a list of safest aircraft rankings based on average accident rates. So far, the Boeing 777 and the Airbus 340 have a clean record and are therefore rated safest based on accident rates. The Airbus 330 had a fatal crash* during a simulated engine failure in Toulouse in 1994, hence ranked in third position.
Air France has decommissioned the Concorde in May 2003. This is to be followed by British Airways in October 2003. The introduction of the Concorde was way ahead of its time but it suffers from being a very expensive airplane to operate due to the high fuel cost and bad publicity after the July 25 crashes. Only two Airlines operated this airplane. Air France had five and British Airways with seven. The entire British Airways Concorde fleet was reported to have cracks in the wings. One of the airplanes had to be grounded when the cracks were found to be expanding. The Concorde flew very few flights as compared to other commercial aircraft. It did about 80,000 takeoffs in its entire 24 years of operation. Hence, its accident rate of 12.02 and poor ranking does not do justice to its safety records. A million takeoffs are usually considered the point where accident rate starts to mean something.
As above, where the accident rates from various sources vary, I have done some juggling by averaging the results in order to come out with these unofficial rankings. Therefore, I cannot guarantee accuracy or endorse any aircraft based on them. These rankings are based on average accident rates only and are subjected to corrections from time to time.
Safest Airplane
|
Rankings
|
Aircraft Model
|
Accident Rate
|
|
1
|
Boeing 777
|
0.00
|
|
1
|
Airbus 340
|
0.00
|
|
3
|
Airbus 330
|
0.00*
|
|
4
|
Boeing 767
|
0.32
|
|
5
|
Saab 340
|
0.33
|
|
6
|
Boeing 757
|
0.35
|
|
7
|
McDonnell MD-80
|
0.43
|
|
8
|
Boeing 737
|
0.60
|
|
9
|
BAE 146
|
0.64
|
|
10
|
Airbus 319/320/321
|
0.67
|
|
11
|
Fokker 100
|
0.71
|
|
11
|
Embraer 120
|
0.71
|
|
13
|
L-1011 Tristar
|
0.91
|
|