AmIGoingDown? App
What is the probability that a plane will crash?
The probability of a fatal plane crash is extremely low.
A cursory search shows that the risk of your plane going down is around 1 in 5.4 million and the risk of being killed in a plane crash for the average American is about 1 in 11 million. Compare this to 1 in 5000 in the case of the risk of being killed on the road.
Sometimes statistics vary because different sources give different values. Nevertheless, numbers are a great way to measure risks and there is no question that by any calculations, flying is a less risky way to travel than some other form of transportation.
Are these statistics of any help to some fearful flyers?
Apparently not, especially to those after reading of a plane crash.
Psychologists have found that when we have total control like when we’re driving a car, we are less afraid. But we are more scared when we don’t have control of where we are heading to, like when we are a passenger on a plane.
As such, the more aware that we don’t have control over it, the more scared we become.
Also, people are more sensitive about catastrophe which kills passengers all at once than say, heart disease which kills more people at different places each day.
Well, these factors are some of the reasons why some people tend to be sceptical of the flying safety statistics.
However, I am rather surprised that there is one app (AmIGoingDown?) for fearful flyers that claims to be able to calculate the probability of their risk of a plane crashing.
It uses information retrieved from 10 million routes by using data from sources such as the Geneva-based Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives, the United States National Transportation Safety Board and the Montreal-based International Civil Aviation Organization.
To check how unlikely your plane is going down, the passenger needs to enter his flight details using real flight data. The app will generate the result as to how safe his flight would be when the airline, the plane and the route are selected.
However, the app has a disclaimer stating that the odds given are an estimate of the historical risk and not a prediction of future performance.
From the app on the above image, a traveller flying from London Heathrow to JFK New York flying on a Boeing 777 with American Airlines, his odds are 1 in 4,746,183 if he took the flight every day and, he would expect to last for 13,003 years before he would meet a fatal air crash!
If you enter the latest survey for the 5 safest airlines in the world for 2022, namely, Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines or Air Portugal, would your odds be even better? Well, that is very likely if the app is updated.
A reader further asked, “What If I were to fly in 4 planes in one day, would my odds of surviving go up or go down?”
Well, statistically, the more flights you take, your probability of a crash will generally increase.
View a YouTube video on What Are The Chances Of Being In A Plane Crash?